Looking ahead this week, as far as my portfolio goes, the most significant event is AMZN earnings on Tuesday. Currently I have 4 calendar spreads working, I am long 2 of the Feb16 200 calls and 2 of the April 200 calls. Up pretty good on the Febs, but just a bit on the Aprils.
My plan is to liquidate the April calls and the shorts against them and 1 of the 2 Feb16 calls. My basis on that call is about $63 and I will stay short a Feb16 275 against it. This way I can stomach a fall to about $253 before I start losing money. Against this I plan to buy an April 265/240 BEAR put spread in case we get a pullback to below $250. In that case I will wait for things to settle out and then probably sell a BULL put spread down at the lower valuation.
As to other positions:
AAPL – still just trading horribly. But just as stocks don’t go up forever, a stock with a PE of 6-7 (forward earnings, back out the cash) growing at 20%., just can’t go down forever. Still the largest single position in my portfolio (ouch). Feel like giving up, but I know that feeling generally only appears around the time of a bottom. I think there is still a good chance that they will announce something and everyone will jump on board again all at once. This usually happens about 2 weeks after I sell the entire position. James Altucher just published a great article here. And if you can appreciate a bit of sarcasm, check out Bryan Goldberg’s piece from yesterday here.
GOOG – fast becoming my favorite trading vehicle. Moves well, but not huge in either direction (see AAPL). I have been doing well selling credit spreads with moves up or down. AND they have already reported earnings.
PCLN – plan to take a good chunk of my calendar spreads off this week. Almost straight-line move up on Friday. Report earnings tentatively on Feb 25th. Seems like a good time to buy a BEAR put spread or two out a few months and sell short term BULL credit put spreads against them
QLD – I own about 400 shares of this etf and am short the Feb16 62 calls against them. I think I am going to roll this 4 calls into the Feb16 55 (or even 50) calls as a hedge against a market pullback. If that happens I will start to nibble on the QQQs eventually replacing all of the QLD with the QQQ. I have quite a bit more SSO and SPY than I do the QQQs but I think that the Nasdaq will get popped harder in a pullback. I am also accumulating a little bit of QID (inverse QLD), TWM (double inverse IWM), SDS (double inverse SPY) and VXX (plain old volatility)
So to summarize; AMZN-thinking it will pull back short term. Selling most longs. AAPL-hoping it stabilizes but did buy some April BEAR put spreads on Friday. GOOG- staying with this name. PCLN-staying mostly long now but will divest by earnings
Good luck to all this week and . . . . . Aloha!